Daily data log

Chinese Sports Lottery (竞彩) fixed odds vs the European “99 bookmakers average” close. Updated automatically; as of 2026-09-28 (Beijing time). Rebuilt after every match day, so this page only changes when new results arrive.

931
matches measured
12.92%
JC margin
0.0006
JC sigma
6.87%
EU margin
931/931
JC dearer
The lottery’s margin barely moves (sigma 0.0006 over 931 matches) while the market’s moves 20× more (sigma 0.0110). A price that does not move cannot be wrong — there is no mispricing to find. Full report: quietnumbers.github.io/china-sports-lottery-overround/

Overround by day (last 60 days shown)

1.04861.09431.14012026-07-292026-09-27JC 1X2 (daily mean)EU average (daily mean)

Dashed line = the JC 1.1292 frozen value from the published study (EU 1.0685). Raw series: data_log.csv.

Per-day detail

datematches that daycumulativeJC overround (day)EU overround (day)gap (pp)
2026-09-2799311.12951.06876.07
2026-09-26249221.12931.07615.32
2026-09-25118981.12961.07005.96
2026-09-2478871.12891.06316.58
2026-09-2328801.12921.08624.30
2026-09-2248781.12931.09213.72
2026-09-20298741.12921.06316.61
2026-09-19278451.12911.06206.71
2026-09-18138181.12901.07015.88
2026-09-17108051.12941.06266.68
2026-09-16137951.12931.06646.29
2026-09-15127821.12911.07285.63
2026-09-1497701.12911.06336.58
2026-09-13197611.12931.06366.57
2026-09-12297421.12931.06126.81
2026-09-11117131.12921.06696.23
2026-09-1057021.12951.05917.04
2026-09-09106971.12941.06566.38
2026-09-08126871.12911.06156.75
2026-09-0796751.12911.06536.38
2026-09-06246661.12931.06316.62
2026-09-05276421.12891.06206.68
2026-09-04136151.12911.06556.36
2026-09-0376021.12931.06836.10
2026-09-02125951.12931.07115.82
2026-09-01105831.12911.06706.21
2026-08-31105731.12881.06586.30
2026-08-30245631.12911.06306.61
2026-08-29285391.12901.06146.76
2026-08-28145111.12931.06466.47
2026-08-2794971.12931.06516.42
2026-08-26124881.12911.06746.18
2026-08-2594761.12931.06935.99
2026-08-24114671.12931.06606.33
2026-08-23274561.12941.06566.38
2026-08-22274291.12921.06406.52
2026-08-21104021.12951.07345.61
2026-08-2083921.12901.06766.14
2026-08-1983841.12901.06806.10
2026-08-1843761.12931.06486.46
2026-08-1753721.12901.06945.95
2026-08-16273671.12921.07095.82
2026-08-15263401.12881.07145.74
2026-08-14163141.12901.07425.48
2026-08-13102981.12901.07455.45
2026-08-1232881.12871.06396.48
2026-08-11102851.12951.06946.01
2026-08-1032751.12931.06936.00
2026-08-09222721.12901.07315.60
2026-08-08232501.12921.07445.48
2026-08-07102271.12921.07545.38
2026-08-0642171.12951.07735.21
2026-08-0532131.12961.07055.90
2026-08-0452101.12951.07135.82
2026-08-0342051.12931.07505.43
2026-08-02142011.12911.07815.10
2026-08-01161871.12911.07625.29
2026-07-3131711.12911.07285.63
2026-07-3051681.12941.07415.53
2026-07-2961631.12921.07025.90

How this page is made

Every match with both the lottery’s three-way fixed odds and the European average close is loaded, the overround (sum of implied probabilities) is computed, and the daily means are aggregated. The page is rebuilt automatically (script build_data_log.py, stdlib only) and committed to the repository. Analysis, not betting advice.

Full report (HTML) · PDF · long-form article on dev.to · dataset on GitHub